Byline: Terry M. Neal

Long before the 1992 election, Fred Malek, a Washington businessman who served as former president George H.W. Bush's campaign manager for the 1988 election, warned his former boss that "assuming the Iraqi problem is resolved in 1991, and we are otherwise at peace, our economic health will be, as usual, the principal measure by which voters will judge you in 1992."

Bill Clinton and his advisers had devised a strategy to exploit Bush's perceived weakness. Fair or not, Clinton successfully defined his opponent as an out-of-touch elitist, oblivious to the suffering his policies had caused Americans.

Twelve years later, another President Bush faces declining or stagnating poll numbers after a long period of sustained popularity and amid economic recovery. His father's bid for reelection came in the third quarter of positive growth in Gross Domestic Product. The current president has had about two and a half years of GDP growth.

But bad news out of Iraq, a lingering public perception of economic anxiety and Democratic campaign strategy have been keeping Bush from converting good economic news into higher poll numbers.

Jim Jordan, the former campaign manager for Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry who now coordinates communications for a major group of Democratic-leaning political organizations, has been furiously spinning reporters that the economy is faltering.

Some quotes from a recent mass e-mail he blasted at reporters:

"* Families Energy Cost Mounting "* Car Fees and College Tuition Costs Spike "* The biggest problem is that inflation is outstripping wage growth by a large margin, cutting into workers' purchasing power. "* The prolonged three-year period of weakness in the job market has cut wage and salary growth in half."

Kerry, taking a page from the playbook that worked so well for Clinton, will spend the next couple of weeks concentrating on trying to convince voters that Bush's economic policies have hurt America.

Democrats say sharp increases in the cost of energy, health care, college tuition and other items have undermined the recovery, and that the administration's massive deficit spending threatens the long-term economic security of the nation and will eventually force up interest rates--a point with which Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan agrees. High interest rates could more than wipe out the benefits of any recent tax cuts, Democrats warn.